The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis
AbstractDuring risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/228.
Date of creation: 06 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-11-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2013-11-29 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2013-11-29 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013.
"Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy,"
Working Paper Series
1565, European Central Bank.
- Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Marco Lo Duca, 2010. "Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 16397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Marco Lo Duca, 2012. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Research 229, National Bank of Belgium.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2010. "Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2011.
"Gross capital flows : dynamics and crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
5768, The World Bank.
- Broner, Fernando A & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio, 2011. "Gross Capital Flows: Dynamics and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fernando Broner & Tatiana Didier & Aitor Erce & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2011. "Gross capital flows: dynamics and crises," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 1039, Banco de Espa�a.
- Fernando Broner & Tatiana Didier & Aitor Erce & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Gross Capital Flows: Dynamics and Crises," Working Papers 476, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Fernando Broner & Tatiana Didier & Aitor Erce & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Economics Working Papers 1227, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2012.
- Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012.
"Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
- Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Getting beyond carry trade: what makes a safe haven currency?," Working Paper Series 1288, European Central Bank.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011.
"Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment,"
in: Global Financial Crisis
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bussirère, Matthieu & Lopez, Claude & Tille, Cédric, 2013. "Currency Crises in Reverse: Do Large Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?," MPRA Paper 44053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinout De Bock & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2013. "The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes," IMF Working Papers 13/8, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.