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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus

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  • Serhan Cevik
  • Mohammad Rahmati

Abstract

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/2.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 04 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/2

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Keywords: Transition economies; External shocks; Developing countries; Economic growth; Economic models; Civil conflict; conflict recurrence risk; institutions; geography; structural reforms; dynamic panel estimation; post-conflict; real gdp; gdp per capita; post-conflict economic growth; post-conflict countries; growth rate; civil conflicts; peacekeeping; peacekeeping operations; civil war; gdp growth; per capita income; armed conflict; armed conflicts; growth model; growth rates; civil wars; post-conflict peace; neoclassical growth model; post-conflict societies; economic growth prospects; peace research; technological change; post-conflict economy; business cycles; post-conflict episodes; ethnic conflict; post-conflict economies; rate of growth; violent conflict; endogenous � growth theory; capital formation; growth in post-conflict societies; duration of peace; cessation of hostilities; international peace; per capita income growth; internal conflict; civil peace; peacekeeping forces; business cycle fluctuations; peacekeepers;

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