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Regionalization vs. Globalization

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  • Hideaki Hirata
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Christopher Otrok

Abstract

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960–2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/19.

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Length: 65
Date of creation: 22 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/19

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Keywords: Globalization; Bilateral trade; Business cycles; Cross country analysis; Time series; Economic models; Comovement; Synchronization; Trade linkages; Financial linkages; business cycle synchronization; regional trade; global trade; trade flows; industry trade; business cycle fluctuations; real gdp; output growth; idiosyncratic factors; increased trade; trade integration; sources of business cycle; vertical specialization; growth rate; international trade; growth cycles; business cycle variation; economic integration; external shocks; business cycle volatility; growth rates; world output; output volatility; transmission of business cycles; world economy; multilateral trade; multiplier effects; private consumption; equilibrium model; commodity prices; business cycle turning points; trade intensity; business cycles synchronization; increasing trade; factor analysis; trade arrangements; sources of business cycles; fixed investment; correlation of business cycles; trade theories; business cycle correlation; volume of trade; gdp growth; economic growth; growth rate of output; business cycle asymmetry; open economy;

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1241, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  4. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2013. "World, Country, and Sector Factors in International Business Cycles," Studies in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Kent 1307, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  6. Kamel GARFA, 2013. "Couplage Ou Découplage Des Cycles Économiques Des Mena : Une Approche En Termes De Modèle A Facteurs Dynamiques," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 225-247.
  7. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo Group Munich.

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