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The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies

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  • John C Bluedorn
  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Jaime Guajardo
  • Nkunde Mwase

Abstract

Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/132.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 30 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/132

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Keywords: Economic growth; Low-income developing countries; Brazil; Korea; Republic of; Indonesia; Mozambique; Cambodia; Development; Cross country analysis; Economic models; takeoff; low-income countries; convergence; export growth; balance of payments; trade openness; regulatory barriers; economic cooperation; current account deficit; commodity prices; preferential access; current account balance; domestic demand; prudential supervision; export diversification; import substitution; external shocks; trade integration; domestic market; oil shock; domestic shocks; global trade; trade classification; international trade; export price; trade flow; trade growth; preferential access to markets; income convergence; conditional convergence; trading partners; prudential regulation; bilateral trade; balance of payments crisis; import-substitution policies; world prices; tax incentives; import price; exchange rate regime; export market; income distribution; per capita income; trade flow data; terms of trade; multiple sources; trade gains; open trade; multinational companies; investment flows; increased protectionism; domestic producers;

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