The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
AbstractNotwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/124.
Date of creation: 22 May 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010.
"Modeling Inflation After the Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
- Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011.
"Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
580, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Sandeep Mazumder & Laurence M. Ball, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 11/121, International Monetary Fund.
- Laurence M. Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 17044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.