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Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

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  • Malika Pant
  • Yanliang Miao
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    Abstract

    Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicators for capital flows that improve upon existing proxies. We find that the most widely used proxy, the capital tracker, often overpredicts net flows by 30 percent. We augment the tracker into a composite indicator by assigning to it a lesser but optimally estimated weight while incorporating other regional and global coincident correlates of capital flows. The proposed composite indicator of net flows outperforms the capital tracker in its original format. To complement the indicator with an even timelier variant, we also utilize the EPFR high frequency coverage of gross bond and equity flows as an indicator on foreign investors'' sentiment.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/55.

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    Length: 24
    Date of creation: 01 Feb 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/55

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    Related research

    Keywords: Capital flows; Balance of payments statistics; Economic indicators; net capital flows; net capital; capital inflows; capital flow; capital movements; exchange rates; global liquidity; equity inflows; international capital flows; global financial markets; volatility of capital flows; short-term capital; foreign exchange; capital controls; financial markets; risk aversion; international investment; hedge funds; border capital flows; international capital; equity prices; financial integration; capital flow reversals; aggregate capital flows;

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 6800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," Research Department Publications 4581, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1996. "Inflows of capital to developing countries in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2014. "International asset allocations and capital flows : the benchmark effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6866, The World Bank.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2013. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1304, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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