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Spillovers to Low-Income Countries

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Author Info

  • Era Dabla-Norris
  • Raphael A. Espinoza
  • Sarwat Jahan

Abstract

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners'' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/49.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/49

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Related research

Keywords: Economic integration; Economic growth; Emerging markets; Low-income developing countries; real gdp; gdp growth; commodity prices; commodity exporters; trading partners; terms of trade; trade openness; partner country; external shocks; business cycle; partner countries; world trade; growth rate; open economy; export shares; oil prices; global trade; growth rates; regional trade; gdp growth rate; trade growth; business cycle synchronization; trade partners; world trade growth; trade links; open economies; transport equipment; trading partner; trade shocks; increasing integration; terms of trade shocks; trading patterns; global shocks; global production chains; growth cycles; business cycles; third-country trade; bilateral trade; increasing trade; business cycle variation; regional integration; trade changes; domestic shocks; global production;

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References

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  1. Jaime Espinosa-Bowen & Nadeem Ilahi & Fahad Alturki, 2009. "How Russia Affects the Neighborhood," IMF Working Papers 09/277, International Monetary Fund.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/155, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Farayi Gwenhamo & Saji Thomas, 2013. "Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area," IMF Working Papers 13/31, International Monetary Fund.

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