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Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession

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Author Info

  • Ashoka Mody
  • Damiano Sandri
  • Franziska Ohnsorge

Abstract

Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. These results are robust to controlling for other determinants of saving rates, including wealth-to-income ratios, the government fiscal balance, demographics, credit conditions, and global growth and financial stress. Our estimates imply that at least two-fifths of the sharp increase in household saving rates between 2007 and 2009 can be attributed to the precautionary savings motive.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/42.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/42

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Keywords: Developed countries; Economic growth; Economic models; Economic recession; Private consumption;

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References

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  1. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
  3. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R & Samiei, Hossein, 1996. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 1368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael McMahon, 2012. "Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 517-531, May.
  7. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: An Analysis with Regional Data," Documentos de trabajo - IRENe 0003, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
  2. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2012. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," Documentos de trabajo - IRENe 0004, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
  3. Luca Fornaro, 2012. "International debt deleveraging," Economics Working Papers 1401, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
  4. Carroll, Christopher & Slacalek, Jiri & Sommer, Martin, 2012. "Dissecting saving dynamics: measuring wealth, precautionary and credit effects," Working Paper Series 1474, European Central Bank.
  5. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2012. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 18527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fessler, Pirmin & Schürz, Martin & Andreasch, Michael, 2012. "Savings Deposits in Austria – A Safety Net in Times of Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 81–95.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Public and private saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks," Working Paper Series 2776, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. Liberda, Barbara & Peczkowski, Marek, 2013. "Households' saving mobility in Poland," MPRA Paper 52531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
  9. Alan, S. & Crossley, T. & Low, H., 2012. "Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1222, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Mundra, Kusum & Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth, 2013. "Determinants of Immigrant Homeownership: Examining their Changing Role during the Great Recession and Beyond," IZA Discussion Papers 7468, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Barbara Liberda & Marek Pęczkowski, 2012. "Polarization of household saving in Poland during financial crisis 2007-2010," Working Papers 2012-19, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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