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Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability

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Author Info

  • Keith Kuester
  • Gernot J. Mueller
  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • André Meier

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a "sovereign risk channel" through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy is constrained, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk amplifies the effects of negative cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even stimulate economic activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/33.

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Length: 56
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/33

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Keywords: Risk premium; Sovereign debt;

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References

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  1. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 10788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," Caepr Working Papers 2006-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  3. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
  4. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/228, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 278, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J.G. van Wijnbergen, 2011. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation Targeting Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-064/2/ DSF20, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Sovereign Debt Risk Premia and Fiscal Policy in Sweden," NBER Working Papers 15810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ana M. Aizcorbe & Arthur B. Kennickell & Kevin B. Moore, 2003. "Recent changes in U.S. family finances: evidence from the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-32.
  10. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. L’austérité plus que toujours en question
    by jcbriquet in Ressources pour économistes on 2012-04-17 11:32:27
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Cited by:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Mueller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk and Belief-Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 13/227, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Gonzalo Caballero, 2013. "Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 15-18, September.
  4. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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