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Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt

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  • Serkan Arslanalp
  • Takahiro Tsuda
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    Abstract

    Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA).� It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/284.

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    Length: 62
    Date of creation: 03 Dec 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/284

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    Related research

    Keywords: Sovereign debt; Developed countries; Investment; Demand; Public debt; Debt management; Debt refinancing; Cross country analysis; International Finance; Financial Crises; Portfolio Choice and Investment Decisions.;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Who's afraid of sovereign bonds?," Policy Contributions 695, Bruegel.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1985. "Portfolio Crowding-out, Empirically Estimated," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1041-65, Supp..
    5. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G Papaioannou & Udaibir S. Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 - 2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Philip Turner, 2012. "Weathering financial crisis: domestic bond markets in EMEs," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Weathering financial crises: bond markets in Asia and the Pacific, volume 63, pages 15-34 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis," IMF Working Papers 12/178, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
    9. Merler, S. & Pisani-Ferry, J., 2012. "Hazardous tango: sovereign-bank interdependence and financial stability in the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 201-210, April.
    10. Daniel, L., 2008. "Foreign investors’ participation in emerging market economies’ domestic bond markets," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 12, pages 61-77, Summer.
    11. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and Their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do They Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/158, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fernando Broner & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2013. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Economics Working Papers 1372, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
    2. Gianluca Cafiso, 2013. "Public-Debt Financing in the case of External Debt," Working Papers 2013-37, CEPII research center.
    3. Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.

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