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Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives

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  • Sheri M. Markose

Abstract

Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation, and also monitor and design ways of increasing robustness in the network. Based on 2009 FDIC and individually collected firm level data covering gross notional, gross positive (negative) fair value and the netted derivatives assets and liabilities for 202 financial firms which includes 20 SIFIs, the bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data-based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 12 SIFIs that account for 78 percent of all bilateral exposures and a large number of financial intermediaries (FIs) on the periphery. The topology of the network results in the “Too- Interconnected-To-Fail†(TITF) phenomenon in that the failure of any member of the central tier will bring down other members with the contagion coming to an abrupt end when the ‘super-spreaders’ have demised. As these SIFIs account for the bulk of capital in the system, ipso facto no bank among the top tier can be allowed to fail, highlighting the untenable implicit socialized guarantees needed for these markets to operate at their current levels. Systemic risk costs of highly connected SIFIs nodes are not priced into their holding of capital or collateral. An eigenvector centrality based ‘super-spreader’ tax has been designed and tested for its capacity to reduce the potential socialized losses from failure of SIFIs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/282.

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Length: 58
Date of creation: 30 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/282

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Keywords: Financial systems; Financial risk; Nonbank financial sector; International capital markets; Financial instruments; Systemic Risk; Financial Network; Too-Interconnected-to-Fail; Eigenvector Centrality; Super Spreader Tax.; contagion; financial contagion; collateral; credit; counterparty; prices; payments; shares; financial crisis; payment systems; rtgs; bilateral netting; financial crises; financial market crisis; collateralization; repo; bilateral links; global financial crisis;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Amariei, Cosmina & Valiante, Diego, 2014. "The OTC derivatives markets after financial reforms," ECMI Papers 9283, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  2. carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," Borradores de Economia 799, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Benjamin M. Tabak & Sergio R. S. Souza & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 318, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Milne, Alistair, 2013. "Register, cap and trade: A proposal for containing systemic liquidy risk," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(7), pages 1-31.
  5. Sheri M. Markose & Bewaji Oluwasegun & Simone Giansante, 2012. "Multi-Agent Financial Network (MAFN) Model of US Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO): Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Negative CDS Carry Trade and Systemic Risk Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 714, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  6. Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "Contagion Risk within Firm-Bank Bivariate Networks," Working Papers Series 322, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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