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The East African Community

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Author Info

  • Catherine McAuliffe
  • Sweta Chaman Saxena
  • Masafumi Yabara

Abstract

The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries—macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions—but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/272.

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Length: 55
Date of creation: 14 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/272

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; East Africa; Infrastructure; Investment; Savings; Cross country analysis; domestic savings; per capita income; commodity prices; commodity exporters; common market; terms of trade; world growth; per capita growth rate; output growth; export diversification; economic liberalization; domestic investment; non-tariff barriers; export growth; monetary union; external shocks; export sector; trading partners; global competitiveness; regulatory framework; domestic capital markets; accelerating growth; growth rates; trade in services; trade integration; internal tariffs; skilled labor; process of liberalization; investment incentives; intermediate products; external tariff; income distribution; agricultural commodities; tariff structure; fixed investment; real gdp; domestic firms; per capita income growth; market integration; export shares; nontariff barriers; trade reforms; export markets; world growth rate; rural population; investment flows; tariff rate;

References

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  1. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
  4. Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6507, October.
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Cited by:
  1. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Nkunde Mwase, 2013. "The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/132, International Monetary Fund.

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