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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

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  • Era Dabla-Norris
  • Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/264.

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    Length: 41
    Date of creation: 02 Nov 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/264

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    Related research

    Keywords: External shocks; Low-income developing countries; Economic growth; Economic models; real gdp; gdp growth; gdp per capita; trading partners; exchange rate regime; export prices; terms of trade; commodity exporters; commodity prices; black market premium; balance of payments; oil exporters; growth rate; exchange rate regimes; current account deficit; domestic demand; exogenous shock; aggregate demand; neoclassical growth model; domestic shocks; open economies; business cycle; balance of payments crises; export growth; trade growth; partner country; trade shock;

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    References

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    1. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-15, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural Policies for Shock-Prone Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2009-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pattillo, Catherine & Spatafora, Nicola, 2011. "The end of an era? The medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 25, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    5. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    6. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
    7. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 11/100, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May.
    14. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    15. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Camelia Minoiu & Chanhyun Kang & V.S. Subrahmanian & Anamaria Berea, 2013. "Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?," IMF Working Papers 13/267, International Monetary Fund.

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