Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures
AbstractThis paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/256.
Date of creation: 25 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Martin de Wit & Matthew Kuperus Heun & Douglas J Crookes, 2013. "An overview of salient factors, relationships and values to support integrated energy-economic systems dynamic modelling," Working Papers 02/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
- Boufateh, Talel & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & El Montasser, Ghassen & Issaoui, Fakhri, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between energy consumption and income in Tunisia: A SVECM approach," MPRA Paper 44539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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