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Bond Yields in Emerging Economies: It Matters What State You Are In

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Author Info

  • Laura Jaramillo
  • Anke Weber

Abstract

While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/198.

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Length: 64
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/198

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Related research

Keywords: Public debt; Bonds; Economic models;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
  2. Don U. A. Galagedera & Robert Faff, 2005. "Modeling The Risk And Return Relation Conditional On Market Volatility And Market Conditions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 75-95.
  3. Francesco Audrino & Enrico De Giorgi, . "Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve," IEW - Working Papers 244, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  4. Shyh-Wei Chen & Nai-Chuan Huang, 2007. "Estimates of the ICAPM with regime-switching betas: evidence from four pacific rim economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 313-327.
  5. Mansoor Dailami & Paul Masson & Jean Jose Padou, 2005. "Global Monetary Conditions versus Country-Specific Factors in the Determination of Emerging Market Debt Spreads," International Finance 0506003, EconWPA.
  6. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002337, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Anders Johansson, 2009. "Stochastic volatility and time-varying country risk in emerging markets," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 337-363.
  9. R. D. Brooks & R. W. Faff & M. McKenzie, 2002. "Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 249-274.
  10. Salvatore Dell’Erba, Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  11. Huang, Ho-Chuan, 2001. "Tests of CAPM with Nonstationary Beta," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 255-68, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Essers, Dennis & Cassimon, Danny, 2012. "Washing away original sin: vulnerability to crisis and the role of local currency bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa," IOB Working Papers 2012.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB).

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