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Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?

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Author Info

  • Luis M. Cubeddu
  • Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora
  • Evridiki Tsounta

Abstract

This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/193.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/193

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Related research

Keywords: Credit; Housing prices; Banking sector; Credit expansion; Emerging markets; Household credit; Latin America; Real estate prices;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Luca Agnello & Ludger Schuknecht, 2009. "Booms and busts in housing markets - determinants and implications," Working Paper Series 1071, European Central Bank.
  2. Bunda, Irina & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2010. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
  3. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allen W. Gregory, 2006. "Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation," Working Papers 06-49, Bank of Canada.
  5. Camilo E Tovar & Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, 2008. "New financing trends in Latin America," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability, volume 36, pages 1-14 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Plamen Iossifov & Martin Cihák & Amar Shanghavi, 2008. "Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/247, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
  8. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/187, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  10. Michela Scatigna & Camilo E Tovar, 2007. "Securitisation in Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  11. Shengzu Wang & Patrizia Tumbarello, 2010. "What Drives House Prices in Australia? A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/291, International Monetary Fund.
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