Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean
AbstractThis paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/157.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2012
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Other versions of this item:
- Craigwell, Roland & Greenidge, Kevin & Thomas, Chrystal & Drakes, Lisa, 2012. "Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 40936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-08-23 (All new papers)
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