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Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy

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Author Info

  • Francis Vitek

Abstract

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/149.

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Length: 77
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/149

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism; Spillovers; Forecasting models; inflation; domestic demand; terms of trade; price inflation; monetary policy; current account balance; output growth; world economy; terms of trade shocks; trade openness; rational expectations; trade shocks; increase in inflation; bilateral trade; open economy; trading partners; net exports; price level; foreign exchange; inflation targeting; trade relationships; dynamic effects; relative price; inflation targeting regime; exchange rate regime; effective exchange rates; commodity prices; open economies; inflation averages; exchange rate fluctuations; trade shock; exchange rate regimes; fall in inflation; net exporters; international trade; real value; multilateral surveillance; trade relationship; rise in inflation; low trade; exchange rate risk; terms of trade shock; world output;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Jan Vlcek & Scott Roger, 2012. "Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks," IMF Working Papers 12/21, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 13/253, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Spillovers to and from the Nordic Economies: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis," IMF Working Papers 13/225, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bui, Trung, 2011. "Apocalypse Then: The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Tamim Bayoumi & Francis Vitek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Model Spillovers and Their Discontents," IMF Working Papers 13/4, International Monetary Fund.

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