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China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

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  • Shaun K. Roache
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    Abstract

    Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting inventory demand) have no effect on commodity prices. China’s impact on world commodity markets is rising but, perhaps surprisingly, remains smaller than that of the United States. This is mainly due to the dynamics of real activity growth shocks in the U.S, which tend to be more persistent and have larger effects on the rest of the world.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/115.

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    Length: 24
    Date of creation: 01 May 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/115

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    Related research

    Keywords: Commodity prices; Spillovers; Commodity markets; External shocks; industrial production; inventories; inventory; non-oil commodity; aggregate demand; global production; global supply; non-oil commodity prices; domestic production; commodity trade; export sector; world markets; oil prices; infrastructure investment; domestic demand; output growth; agricultural trade; shipping; terms of trade; production process; reserve holdings; world trade; trade-weighted average; global market; primary commodities;

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    1. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:
    1. Christopher F Baum & Marketa W. Halova & Alexander Kurov, 2013. "Does Regular Economic News from Emerging Countries Move Markets? Evidence from Chinese Macro Announcements," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 834, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Feb 2014.
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Fry-McKibbin, Renée & Linehan, Verity, 2013. "Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier," Working Papers 17027, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 01 Jul 2013.
    3. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    4. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    5. Philip Schellekens, 2013. "A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16115, The World Bank.

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