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Financial Cycles

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Author Info

  • Marco Terrones
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Stijn Claessens

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices. We report three main results. First, financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets. Second, they are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles. The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing over time. Third financial cycles accentuate each other and become magnified, especially during coincident downturns in credit and housing markets. Moreover, globally synchronized downturns tend to be associated with more prolonged and costly episodes, especially for credit and equity cycles. We discuss how these findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/76.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/76

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Related research

Keywords: Developed countries; Housing prices; Stock prices; financial cycles; financial crises; financial markets; equity markets; credit booms; financial crisis; financial booms; recessions; severe financial crises; financial market; recession; financial liberalization; banking crises; financial intermediation; stock market; financial integration; financial crisis literature; equity market; domestic financial markets; global financial crisis; credit boom; asset markets; systemic banking crises; deposit money banks; capital account liberalization; international financial markets; early warning system; financial intermediaries; financial globalization; stock market cycles; bonds; contagion; deposit money; international finance; stock markets; financial system; money markets; bond; financial economics;

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References

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  1. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 603-618, 09.
  3. Jean Boivin & Michael T. Kiley & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2010. "How has the monetary transmission mechanism evolved over time?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  5. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
  8. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
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  11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  12. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Quinn, Dennis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2008. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," CEPR Discussion Papers 7013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  16. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
  19. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1998. "Dating the Integration of World Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "International recessions," Staff Report 463, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  3. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Managing credit bubbles," Economics Working Papers 1367, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2014.
  4. Tarishi Matsuoka, 2010. "Imperfect Interbank Markets and the Lender of Last Resort," KIER Working Papers 731, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Haavio, Markus & Kauppi , Heikki, 2011. "Owner-occupied housing as an investment, regional house price cycles and residential sorting," Research Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland.
  6. Markus Haavio & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2014. "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 407-412, April.
  7. Philippe Bracke, 2011. "How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/231, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Fiscal cyclicality and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
  9. Orrego, Fabrizio, 2014. "Precios de viviendas en Lima," Working Papers 2014-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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