Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation
AbstractFood prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/71.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2011-05-14 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-05-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-05-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-05-14 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & C. Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006.
"Sticky Prices in The Euro Area: a Summary of New Micro Evidence,"
w200605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
- Álvarez, Luis J. & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Hoeberichts, Marco M. & Kwapil, Claudia & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lünnemann, Patrick & Martins, Fernando & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Vermeulen, Philip & Vi, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Working Paper Series 0563, European Central Bank.
- Álvarez, L. & Dhyne, E. & Hoeberichts, M. & Kwapil, C. & Le Bihan, H. & Lünnemann, P. & Martins, F. & Sabbatini, R. & Stahl,H. & Vermeulen, P. & Vilmunen, J., 2005. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro Evidence," Working papers 138, Banque de France.
- Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmun, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0542, Banco de Espa�a.
- Álvarez, Luis J. & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Hoeberichts, Marco & Kwapil, Claudia & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lünnemann, Patrick & Martins, Fernando & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Vermeulen, Philip & Vilmu, 2006. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- L. J. �lvarez & E. Dhyne & M. Hoeberichts & C. Kwapil & H. Le Bihan & P. L�nnemann & F. Martins & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & P. Vermeulen & J. Vilmunen, 2005. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: a Summary of New Micro Evidence," DNB Working Papers 062, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2007. "A comparison of measures of core inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 19-38.
- Bilke, Laurent & Stracca, Livio, 2007.
"A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the Euro area,"
Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1032-1047, November.
- Bilke, Laurent & Stracca, Livio, 2008. "A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0905, European Central Bank.
- Carlos Garcia & Jesisbé Mejía, 2012. "Optimal macroeconomic stabilization policy of food, metal, and energy price cycles in small open economies," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv284, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- World Bank, 2011. "Global Economic Prospects, Volume 3, June 2011 : Maintaining Progress Amid Turmoil," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12098, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.