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Food Prices and Political Instability

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Author Info

  • Rabah Arezki
  • Markus Bruckner

Abstract

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries'' social and political stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/62.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/62

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Related research

Keywords: Agricultural prices; Economic models; Food production; Low-income developing countries; food prices; food price; food insecurity; food consumption; food exports; food staples; food producers; food exporting; food market; food riots;

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References

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  1. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 938-963, September.
  3. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict," Economics Working Papers 1063, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 2009-38, FEDEA.
  5. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 124-57, October.
  6. Berger, Helge & Spoerer, Mark, 2001. "Economic Crises And The European Revolutions Of 1848," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(02), pages 293-326, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2011. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," CESifo Working Paper Series 3694, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Pedro Conceição & Sebastian Levine & Zuzana Brixiova, 2011. "The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Impacts and Policies in African Countries," Working Papers 2011-003, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa (UNDP/RBA).
  3. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 18934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Anna Kochanova & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "Country Stress Events," IMF Working Papers 12/116, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Linda Kleemann, 2012. "Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Africa: An Overview," Kiel Working Papers 1812, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Bellemare, Marc F., 2011. "Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest," MPRA Paper 31888, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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