How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation
AbstractThe effectiveness of fiscal policy in smoothing the impact of shocks depends critically on the size of fiscal multipliers. This is particularly relevant for the GCC countries given the need for fiscal policy to cushion the economy from large terms of trade shocks in the absence of an independent monetary policy and where fiscal multipliers could be weak dues to substantial leakages through remittances and imports. The paper provides estimates of the size of fiscal multipliers using a variety of models. The focus is on government spending since tax revenues are small. The long-run multiplier estimates vary in the 0.3-0.7 range for current expenditure and 0.6-1.1 for capital spending, depending on the particular specification and estimation method chosen. These estimates fall within the range of fiscal multiplier estimates in the literature for non-oil emerging markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/61.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-04-02 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-PBE-2011-04-02 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 2011.
"How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?,"
IMF Working Papers
11/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," NBER Working Papers 16479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Serhan Cevik, 2011. "Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism," IMF Working Papers 11/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Raphael A. Espinoza, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/132, International Monetary Fund.
- Konov, Joshua Ioji / JK, 2013. "Enhancing Markets (i.e. Economies) Transmissionability to Optimize Monetary Policies’ Effect," MPRA Paper 46950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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