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The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union

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  • Pau Rabanal
  • Oriol Aspachs-Bracons

Abstract

The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we calibrate a New Keynesian model of a currency area with durable goods to explain it. We find that labor market rigidities provide stronger amplification effects to all type of shocks than financial frictions do. Finally, we show that when the central bank reacts to house prices, the non-durable sector suffers an important contraction. As a result, the boom-and-bust cycle would not have been avoided if Spain had remained outside the EMU during the 1996-2007 period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/6.

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Length: 52
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/6

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Keywords: Housing; Economic models; External shocks; Housing prices; Interest rates; Labor markets; monetary policy; inflation; monetary economics; central bank; price level; nominal interest rate; inflation targeting; monetary authority; monetary fund; relative price; monetary union; monetary shock; inflation targeting regime; terms of trade; relative prices; inflation rate; monetary authorities; monetary transmission; optimal monetary policy; monetary shocks; monetary policy rule; price inflation; increase in interest rates; monetary autonomy; monetary policy autonomy; monetary policy decisions; real wages; inflation target; real variables; expansionary monetary policy; gdp deflator; monetary policy independence; monetary policy regime; real interest rates; contractionary monetary policy;

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  1. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
  2. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0972, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Financial market heterogeneity: Implications for the EMU," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 90, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  2. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
  4. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 88, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  5. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
  6. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
  7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  8. Christophe André & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate?: Evidence from OECD Countries Using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 947, OECD Publishing.
  9. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
  10. John C. Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Housing Booms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 345-355, March.

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