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Modeling Inflation in Chad

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  • Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending. The effects of rainfall shocks and changes in foreign prices on inflation persist during six quarters. Changes in public spending and the nominal exchange rate affect inflation during three and four quarters, respectively.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/57.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/57

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Related research

Keywords: External shocks; Consumer price indexes; Economic models; Government expenditures; inflation; money market; monetary fund; discount rate; real money; inflation dynamics; money demand; money supply; price level; aggregate demand; price inflation; monetary union; annual inflation; demand for money; real money supply; quasi money; inflationary pressures; macroeconomic stability; monetary theory; actual inflation; terms of trade; inflation forecasts; general price level; monetary community; inflation convergence; low inflation;

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References

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  1. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November.
  2. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Inflation persistence in the Franc Zone: evidence from disaggregated prices," Working Papers 2008/16, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  3. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
  4. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 97/145, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants Of Inflation In Gcc," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 141-158.
  6. Kadima D. Kalonji & Jan Gottschalk & Ken Miyajima, 2008. "Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When there Are Data Limitation:The Case of Sierra Leone," IMF Working Papers 08/271, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.
  2. Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Darlena Tartari & Carlos Caceres, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 11/232, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.

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