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Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission''s and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/48.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/48

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Keywords: Budget deficits; Economic forecasting; Economic growth; Fiscal stability; budget deficit; survey; fiscal authorities; fiscal forecasts; equation; fiscal policy; forecasting; fiscal rules; statistics; fiscal authority; fiscal policies; goodness of fit; fiscal framework; budget balance; predictions; general budget; fiscal discipline; correlation; fiscal forecasting; surveys; fiscal institutions; autocorrelation; equations; econometrics; annual budget; fiscal planning; statistic; fiscal variables; public finances; government budget; fiscal plans; fiscal consolidation; government agencies; fiscal expansion; fiscal deficits; taxation; optimistic forecast; annual budgets; fiscal side; probability; mean square; public finance; discretionary fiscal policies; fiscal accounts; fiscal profligacy; fiscal revenues; descriptive statistics; fiscal position; fiscal developments; government expenditures; covariance; fiscal projections; fiscal variable; government fiscal policies; fiscal deficit; estimation of equation; pessimistic forecasts; fiscal agencies; absolute error; fiscal restriction; budget balances; tax revenues; government budget deficits; fiscal regimes; debt service;

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References

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  1. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
  2. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring Fiscal Expectations," Caepr Working Papers, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington 2009-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  3. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
  4. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 2007-10, CEPII research center.
  5. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 210, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1973, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2008. "Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0745, European Central Bank.
  9. Xavier Debrun & David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "Independent Fiscal Agencies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 44-81, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.
  2. Victor Duarte Lledo & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 11/172, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2013. "Fiscal Deficits and the Role of Fiscal Governance: The case of Greece," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 5-30, March.
  4. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza, 2013. "Do budget balance rules anchor budget balance expectations? -- Some international evidence," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80050, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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