Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data
AbstractThe paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/48.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-04-02 (European Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2011-04-02 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-FOR-2011-04-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-02 (Macroeconomics)
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