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New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

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Author Info

  • Troy Matheson

Abstract

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/43.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/43

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Related research

Keywords: Developed countries; Economic growth; Economic indicators; Emerging markets; Forecasting models;

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References

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  1. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
  2. Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
  3. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Interpolation and backdating with a large information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2693-2724, December.
  5. Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0807, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  9. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  10. Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print peer-00844811, HAL.
  11. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
  13. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  14. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "A Longer-run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/17, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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