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Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania

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  • Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

This paper quantifies the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator. The analysis is motivated by the systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past. Both methods confirm that tax elasticities moved with the cycle, which can be attributed to the procyclical tax compliance tendencies and structural composition effects across tax bases. Comparison of VAT revenue gaps across Baltic countries during the recent recovery suggests that tax revenues rebounded fastest in Estonia, followed by Lithuania and Latvia. Overall, the results of the study emphasize the importance of accounting for cyclical variation in tax elasticities when making short-term tax revenue projections.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/270.

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Length: 16
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/270

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Related research

Keywords: Lithuania; Baltics; Direct taxation; Indirect taxation; Tax revenues; Tax systems; Value added tax; tax compliance; tax system; tax elasticity; vat revenue; tax revenue; tax bases; tax evasion; tax structure; tax collections; indirect taxes; short-term tax; tax base; land taxes; tax payments; revenue collection; tax collection; taxation; tax revenue collections; fiscal affairs; excise duties; fiscal affairs department; tax revenue projections; excise duty; budget balances; direct taxes; government revenue; public finance; corporate income taxes; fiscal balance; fiscal adjustment; fiscal balances; budgetary funds; structural fiscal; personal income tax; corporate income tax; regressive taxes; fiscal stabilizers; income taxes; designing vat; tax categories;

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References

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  1. Burcu Aydin, 2010. "Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 10/216, International Monetary Fund.
  2. European Commission, 2011. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2011 edition," Taxation trends 2011, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  3. European Commission, 2013. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2013 edition," Taxation trends 2013, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  4. Agha, Ali & Haughton, Jonathan, 1996. "Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 303-08, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Assessing the variability of indirect tax elasticity in Greece," Working Papers 171, Bank of Greece.
  2. Stavros Degiannakis & Timotheos Angelidis & George Filis, 2013. "Oil price shocks and volatility do predict stock market regimes," Working Papers 170, Bank of Greece.

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