Global Shocks and their Impact on Low-Income Countries: Lessons from theGlobal Financial Crisis
AbstractThis paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/27.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2011
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DEV-2011-02-26 (Development)
- NEP-FDG-2011-02-26 (Financial Development & Growth)
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- Berg, Andrew & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pattillo, Catherine & Spatafora, Nicola, 2011.
"The end of an era? The medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries,"
IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? â Prospects for Trade and Growth
25, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
- Chris Papageorgiou & Andrew Berg & Catherine A. Pattillo & Nicola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/205, International Monetary Fund.
- Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea Presbitero, 2012. "Low-Income Countries and an SDR-based International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 129-150, February.
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- Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2011. "Low-Income Countries Vulnerabilities and the Need for an SDR-Based International Monetary System," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 55, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
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