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Reversing the Financial Accelerator

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Author Info

  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Reginald Darius

Abstract

This paper examines the role of credit markets in the transmission of U.S. macro-financial shocks through the prism of a financial conditions index (FCI) based on a vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. It explores the relative predictive power of market variables compared to credit standards/conditions. The main conclusion is that under plausible specifications credit conditions dominate market variables, highlighting the importance of credit supply. The fact that direct measures of credit conditions anticipate future movements in asset prices has an extremely important implication. Most models of the credit channel see it as an amplifier of underlying changes in financial wealth. The impact of credit conditions on growth compared to other market variables implies that credit supply drives other financial variables rather than responding to them.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/26.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/26

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Related research

Keywords: Economic models; survey; monetary policy; statistics; inflation; forecasting; monetary economics; monetary conditions; standard deviation; causation; central bank; aggregate demand; vector autoregression; transmission of monetary policy; monetary transmission; monetary fund; bayesian information criteria; empirical validity; money supply; predictability; long-term interest rates; estimation method; monetary transmission mechanism; monetary condition; explanatory power; statistic; equation;

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Cited by:
  1. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
  2. Karl Aiginger, 2011. "Why Growth Performance Differed across Countries in the Recent Crisis: the Impact of Pre-crisis Conditions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 35-52, August.

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