Inflation Dynamics in Asia: Causes, Changes, and Spillovers from China
AbstractThe perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/257.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Osorio, Carolina & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in Asia: Causes, changes, and spillovers from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-40.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-12-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-12-19 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-12-19 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-12-19 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2011-12-19 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Research Department Publications
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