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Inflation Dynamics in Asia: Causes, Changes, and Spillovers from China

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  • Carolina Osorio
  • D. Filiz Unsal

Abstract

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/257.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/257

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Related research

Keywords: Asia; Commodity prices; Economic models; Spillovers;

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  1. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
  2. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4732, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.

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