Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring
Abstract
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.Download Info
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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/25.Length: 0
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/25
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Related research
Keywords: Group of seven; Prices;Other versions of this item:
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 245 - 286.
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 245-286 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER Working Papers 16264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2011-02-26 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2011-02-26 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1999.
"Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
- Kalemli-Ozcan, S. & Sorensen, B.E. & Yosha, O., 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Papers 16-99, Tel Aviv.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Risk sharing and industrial specialization ; regional and international evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 00-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Working Papers 99-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," JCPR Working Papers 86, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Jean Imbs, 2010.
"The First Global Recession in Decades,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
- Imbs, Jean, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," CEPR Discussion Papers 7973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 15-29.
- David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012.
"Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union,"
CREMA Working Paper Series
2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 277, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
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