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How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

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  • Philippe Bracke

Abstract

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/231.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/231

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Keywords: Housing prices; OECD; Price adjustments; Price increases;

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Cited by:
  1. Vítor Castro & Megumi Kubota, 2013. "Duration dependence and change-points in the likelihood of credit booms ending," NIPE Working Papers 09/2013, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Aquiles Arrieta Barcasnegras, 2012. "La relación entre los flujos de capital y el precio de la vivienda: el caso colombiano," Revista de Economía del Caribe, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.
  3. David Lodge & Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2013. "How long can austerity persist? The factors that sustain fiscal consolidations," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24, June.
  4. Augustyniak, Hanna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2012. "Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny
    [Cycles on the housing and commercial real estate market, risks and th
    ," MPRA Paper 41070, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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