Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery

Contents:

Author Info

  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25249
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/218.

as in new window
Length: 50
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/218

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords: Spillovers; Economic growth; Economic recovery; Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009; domestic demand; trade channels; transmission of shocks; external shocks; trade effects; negative spillovers; output growth; world economy; net exports; monetary union; interest rates; dynamic growth; open economies; trade links; commodity prices; trade partners; increased trade; trade partner; lead; export market; border trade; dynamic effects; global trade; net exporter; idiosyncratic shocks; world trade; trading partners; global shocks; neighboring countries; economic integration; non-oil commodity; trade variables; domestic consumption; increasing trade; partner countries; terms of trade; domestic shocks; trade flows; closed economy; global scale;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  3. Down Holland & Ray Borrell & Aurélie Delonnoy & Totiono Fic & Ian Hurst & Ali Orozgoni & Pawel Paluchowski & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages F10-F17, April.
    • Down Holland & Aurélie Delonnoy & Totiono Fic & Ian Hurst & Ali Orozgoni & Powel Paluchowski & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages R11-R14, July.
  4. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  5. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 639-687, October.
  7. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Francis Vitek, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/238, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Francis Vitek, 2010. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty," IMF Working Papers 10/152, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic transmission of eurozone shocks to emerging economies," Working Papers 2012-12, CEPII research center.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.