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Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effects on Long-term Yields

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Author Info

  • C. Emre Alper
  • Lorenzo Forni

Abstract

Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possible spillover effects of large advanced economies' debt levels to other economies' borrowing yields, especially in emerging markets. We extend the existing literature by using real time expectations of fiscal and other macroeconomic variables for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. We show that an increase in the public debt levels of large advanced economies - especially the United States - spills over to both emerging markets and other advanced economies' long-term real yields and that this effect is significant at the current levels of advanced economies' debt ratios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/210.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/210

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Related research

Keywords: Spillovers; Public debt; Bonds; Developed countries; Economic models; Emerging markets; Interest rates;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  2. Pablo Guerron & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, 2010. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 281, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 10788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
  7. Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan David Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System," IMF Occasional Papers 270, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence From A Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 13/159, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Debt levels, debt composition, and sovereign spreads in emerging and advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 518-547, AUTUMN.
  3. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads," IMF Working Papers 11/221, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Nazim Belhocine & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 13/93, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Raphael W. Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2011. "Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market," IMF Working Papers 11/292, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Serkan Arslanalp & Raphael W. Lam, 2013. "Outlook for Interest Rates and Japanese Banks’ Risk Exposures under Abenomics," IMF Working Papers 13/213, International Monetary Fund.

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