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External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries

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  • Robert C. York
  • Misa Takebe
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    Abstract

    In the extensive empirical work carried out across the IMF on oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the notion of "sustainability" is often directed toward fiscal policies, and, in particular, views on the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit. The bulk of this work does not, however, address external sustainability, which is a concern especially for those SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. A couple of recent papers have extended the existing methodologies to assess external sustainability for some oil-producing countries but they do not focus on those in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we bolster this empirical work by providing a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each of the SSA oil-producing countries, based on three widely used methodologies in the IMF. Our research strategy is to apply these models to the eight countries in the subregion - Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d''Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo - using similar simplifying assumptions so that we are using the same lens to view how they do and do not differ.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/207.

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    Length: 32
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/207

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    Related research

    Keywords: Commodity price fluctuations; Current account balances; Economic models; Oil prices; Oil producing countries; Oil sector; current account; current account balance; current account deficits; current account surpluses; current account surplus; external shocks; domestic debt; current accounts; investment income; central bank; capital account liberalization; capital account; external current account balance; public finance; domestic debt markets; external financing; external debt; domestic borrowing; external current account surplus;

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    References

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    1. Alun H. Thomas & Jun Il Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/198, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269, September.
    5. Lone Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "External Balance in Low-Income Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 265-322 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hanan Morsy, 2010. "Current Account Determinants For Oil-Exporting Countries," Working Papers 511, Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2010.
    7. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    8. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 0995, European Central Bank.
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