External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries
AbstractIn the extensive empirical work carried out across the IMF on oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the notion of "sustainability" is often directed toward fiscal policies, and, in particular, views on the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit. The bulk of this work does not, however, address external sustainability, which is a concern especially for those SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. A couple of recent papers have extended the existing methodologies to assess external sustainability for some oil-producing countries but they do not focus on those in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we bolster this empirical work by providing a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each of the SSA oil-producing countries, based on three widely used methodologies in the IMF. Our research strategy is to apply these models to the eight countries in the subregion - Angola, Cameroon, Chad, CÃ´te d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo - using similar simplifying assumptions so that we are using the same lens to view how they do and do not differ.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/207.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2011
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2011-09-22 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2011-09-22 (Development)
- NEP-ENE-2011-09-22 (Energy Economics)
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