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The Chilean Output Gap

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Author Info

  • Leandro Medina
  • Nicolas E. Magud

Abstract

This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/2.

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Length: 14
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/2

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Economic models; Employment; Natural resources; Production; natural resource; natural resource sector; real gdp; gdp growth; growth rate; growth rates; total factor productivity; business cycles; copper; gdp growth rates; fast economic growth;

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  1. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Donal McGettigan & Kenji Moriyama & Jean F Noah Ndela Ntsama & Francois Painchaud & Haonan Qu & Chad Steinberg, 2013. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 13/96, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia," IMF Working Papers 11/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Tara Sinclair & Julia Bersch, 2013. "Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy 2013-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

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