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Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications

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  • Kenji Moriyama
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the degree of inflation inertia in Egypt and its determinants using the cross country data consisting of over 100 countries. Medium-unbiased estimator of inflation inertia in Egypt is high compared to other countries, as indicated by its location around the upper quartile among the sample. The cross country analysis indicates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy and fiscal consolidation are a key to reduce inflation inertia and the costs of disinflation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/160.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/160

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    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal consolidation; inflation; monetary policy; central bank; inflation targeting; monetary policy framework; inflation target; distribution of inflation; high inflation; inflation dynamics; terms of trade; inflationary pressures; annual inflation; inflation data; monetary economics; aggregate demand; monetary fund; measure of inflation; counter-cyclical monetary policy; average inflation; actual inflation; nominal interest rate; lower inflation; macroeconomic stability; cyclical monetary policy; range of inflation; real interest rate; low inflation; rational expectations; percent inflation; effects of inflation; price level; inflation rate; monetary regimes; double digit inflation; real interest rates; high inflation episodes;

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    References

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    1. Hansen,B.E., 1998. "The grid bootstrap and the autoregressive model," Working papers 26, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/03, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Dossche, Maarten & Everaert, Gerdie, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Series 0495, European Central Bank.
    4. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
    5. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/45, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, 07.
    8. Levin, Andrew T. & Natalucci, Fabio M. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 0383, European Central Bank.
    9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
    10. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment," MPRA Paper 19960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Inflation persistence: how much can we explain?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 43-55.
    13. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework
      [Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Ke
      ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
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    Cited by:
    1. Touny, Mahmoud, 2013. "Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt," MPRA Paper 54561, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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