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Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications

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  • Kenji Moriyama
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the degree of inflation inertia in Egypt and its determinants using the cross country data consisting of over 100 countries. Medium-unbiased estimator of inflation inertia in Egypt is high compared to other countries, as indicated by its location around the upper quartile among the sample. The cross country analysis indicates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy and fiscal consolidation are a key to reduce inflation inertia and the costs of disinflation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/160.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/160

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    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal consolidation; inflation; monetary policy; central bank; inflation targeting; monetary policy framework; inflation target; distribution of inflation; high inflation; inflation dynamics; terms of trade; inflationary pressures; annual inflation; inflation data; monetary economics; aggregate demand; monetary fund; measure of inflation; counter-cyclical monetary policy; average inflation; actual inflation; nominal interest rate; lower inflation; macroeconomic stability; cyclical monetary policy; range of inflation; real interest rate; low inflation; rational expectations; percent inflation; effects of inflation; price level; inflation rate; monetary regimes; double digit inflation; real interest rates; high inflation episodes;

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    1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    2. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring Inflation Persistence: A Structural Time Series Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics 459, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. V�gh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    4. Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics 181, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
    6. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/45, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
    9. Levin, Andrew T. & Natalucci, Fabio M. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0383, European Central Bank.
    10. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Inflation persistence: how much can we explain?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 43-55.
    11. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Latin America," Working Papers, Banco de México 2006-11, Banco de México.
    12. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework
      [Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Ke
      ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press, Princeton University Press.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    14. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment," MPRA Paper 19960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:
    1. Carrasco, Bruno & Mukhopadhyay, Hiranya, 2014. "Reserve Bank of India’s Policy Dilemmas: Reconciling Policy Goals in Times of Turbulence," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 393, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Touny, Mahmoud, 2013. "Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt," MPRA Paper 54561, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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