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Post-Conflict Recovery

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Author Info

  • Antonio David
  • Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
  • Marshall Mills

Abstract

This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/149.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/149

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Economic models; Economic recovery; Governance; Terms of trade; post-conflict; post-conflict episodes; conflict episodes; post-conflict episode; civil conflict; civil wars; foreign aid; civil war; conflict episode; armed conflict; social conflict; post-conflict situations; post-conflict countries; post-conflict period; post-conflict settings; post-conflict societies; conflict countries; post-conflict economies; conflict societies; post-conflict situation; higher growth; conflict economies; armed conflicts; intensity of conflict; post-conflict economic growth; refugees; ethnic fragmentation; distributional conflicts; influx of refugees; polarization; high risk; external shocks; negative spillovers; post conflict; growth collapses;

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References

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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, 09.
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  6. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2003. "Unbundling Institutions," NBER Working Papers 9934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fogli, Alessandra, 2003. "Comment on: "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 125-131, January.
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  11. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
  12. William Easterly, 2008. "Can the West Save Africa?," NBER Working Papers 14363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins," NBER Working Papers 13608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Daron Acemoglu, 2007. "Oligarchic Versus Democratic Societies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 47, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  17. Nicholas Staines, 2004. "Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle," IMF Working Papers 04/95, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Arvind Subramanian & Jonathan David Ostry & Simon Johnson, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Patrick A. Imam & Eleonara Granziera & Norbert Funke, 2008. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 08/36, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D. Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," NBER Working Papers 13120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. Marshall Burke & John Dykema & David Lobell & Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2010. "Climate and Civil War: Is the Relationship Robust?," NBER Working Papers 16440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Serhan Cevik & Mohammad Rahmati, 2013. "Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus," IMF Working Papers 13/2, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Patricia Justino & Ivan Cardona & Rebecca Mitchell & Catherine Müller, 2012. "Quantifying the Impact of Women’s Participation in Post-Conflict Economic Recovery," HiCN Working Papers 131, Households in Conflict Network.
  3. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2013. "The Evolution of Conflict and Effectiveness of Aid," MPRA Paper 47050, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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