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Will Natural Gas Prices Decouple From Oil Prices Across the Pond?

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

We show that US natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices following substantial institutional and technological changes. We then examine how this interrelationship has evolved in Europe using data for Algeria, one of Europe’s key gas suppliers. Taking into account total gas exports and cyclical conditions in partner countries, we find that gas prices remain linked to oil prices, though the nexus has loosened. Both high oil prices and a modest industrial recovery in partner countries have kept gas exports at low levels in recent years, suggesting changing market forces. The paper then shows how such shifts can have important macroeconomic implications for a big gas exporter such as Algeria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/143.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/143

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Related research

Keywords: Natural gas; Commodity prices; Algeria; Oil; Economic models; External shocks; Oil prices; Production; gas prices; gas exports; gas price; gas production; gas buyers; oil and natural gas prices; gas demand; gas markets; energy information administration; gas market; natural gas exports; natural gas export; higher oil prices; oil shock; econometric analysis; opec; oil exports; carbon emissions; gas suppliers; gas supply; natural gas markets; gas export markets; production of gas output; crude oil; fuel switching; gas commodity; natural gas commodity; power generation; general liquefied natural electric generators; natural gas buyers; oil supply; price for natural spot price; gas purchases; renewable energy; gas exploration; natural gas liquids; wellhead price; gas producers; gas producer; gas contracts;

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  1. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2007. "What drives natural gas prices?," Working Papers 0703, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 187-200.
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