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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Natalia T. Tamirisa
  • Prakash Loungani
  • Herman O. Stekler

Abstract

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/125.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/125

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Related research

Keywords: Data analysis; Developed countries; Economic forecasting; Economic growth; Economic models; Economic recession; Emerging markets; recessions; banking crises; recession; forecasting; confidence intervals; standard deviations; statistics; equation; standard deviation; statistical tests; standard errors; dummy variable; correlation; crisis episodes; econometrics; martingale; descriptive statistics; survey; banking crisis; currency crises; error variance; financial statistics; time series; independent variables; standard error; bank crises; systemic banking crises; systemic banking crisis; covariances; correlations;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Prakash Loungani & Natalia Tamirisa, 2014. "Information Rigidities: Comparing Average And Individual Forecasts For A Large International Panel," Working Papers 2014-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  2. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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