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Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium

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  • Damiano Sandri

Abstract

In this paper we assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which is calibrated based on the 1980-2008 period. The model predicts a wide dispersion in net foreign asset positions, with the highly volatile oil-exporting countries accumulating very large asset holdings. While heterogeneity in GDP volatility may lead to large imbalances in international investment positions, its impact on current accounts is much weaker. This is because countries are expected to move towards their optimal NFA at a very slow pace.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/122.

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Length: 61
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/122

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Related research

Keywords: Current account balances; Economic growth; Economic models; Gross domestic product; Reserves accumulation;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Marco E. Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism," 2008 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Jaewoo Lee, . "Accounting for Global Dispersion of Current Accounts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2006. "The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti & Zheng Song, 2009. "Growing like China," 2009 Meeting Papers 912, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  9. Damiano Sandri, 2010. "Growth and Capital Flows with Risky Entrepreneurship," IMF Working Papers 10/37, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh, 1992. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 92/72, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  13. Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009. "Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources," IMF Working Papers 09/33, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Clarida, Richard H, 1990. "International Lending and Borrowing in a Stochastic, Stationary Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 543-58, August.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-07-17 01:11:04
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Cited by:
  1. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Oil Exporters' Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," IMF Working Papers 12/4, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.

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