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Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper estimates a small open economy model for Egypt to analyze inflation, output dynamics and monetary policy during 2005-2010. The interest rate channel is found to be relatively weak in Egypt, complicating the use of interest rates as the immediate target of monetary policy. However, the paper also finds a significant level of persistence in the policy rate, making monetary policy pro-cyclical. More active use of interest rate policy, measures to improve domestic debt markets and a gradual move towards inflation targeting can help support a successful disinflation strategy for Egypt.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/108.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/108

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Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
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Related research

Keywords: Economic models; Spillovers; inflation; monetary policy; real interest rate; nominal interest rate; central bank; inflation targeting; inflationary pressures; optimal monetary policy; inflation target; inflation dynamics; real interest rates; monetary fund; monetary policy framework; monetary policy rule; annual inflation; inflation rate; annual inflation rate; discount rate; monetary transmission; monetary policy transmission mechanism; actual inflation; inflation targeting regime; open market operations; monetary transmission mechanism; inflation forecasts; liquidity management; price level; inflation targeting framework; monetary transmission mechanisms; monetary policy reaction functions; real output; inflationary impact; effective exchange rates; double digit inflation; nominal interest rates; steady-state inflation; monetary condition; real variables;

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  1. Rania Al Mashat & Andreas Billmeier, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Working Papers 411, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2008.
  2. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Michal Andrle & Haris Munandar & Charles Freedman & Danny Hermawan, 2009. "Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/253, International Monetary Fund.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund.
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