Assessing Fiscal Stress
AbstractThis paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/100.
Date of creation: 01 May 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-14 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcos Chamon & Paolo Manasse & Alessandro Prati, 2007. "Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 270-305, June.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003.
"Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
81, Royal Economic Society.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yishay Yafeh & Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman, 2000.
"Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now,"
IMF Working Papers
00/190, International Monetary Fund.
- Paolo Mauro, 2000. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-FE-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Paolo Mauro & Yishay Yafeh & Nathan Sussman, 2001. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System ?," Working Papers halshs-00450050, HAL.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hali J. Edison, 2000.
"Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
- Murray Petrie & Richard Hemming, 2000. "A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 00/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
- Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Elif Arbatli & C. Emre Alper & Jiri Jonas & Anke Weber & Marc Gerard & Tidiane Kinda & Giovanni Callegari & Anna Shabunina & Andrea Schaechter & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "A Toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/11, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Appraising Credit Ratings: Does the CAP Fit Better than the ROC?," IMF Working Papers 12/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012.
"The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions,"
145, Bank of Greece.
- Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2013. "The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 197-213.
- Camelia Minoiu & Chanhyun Kang & V.S. Subrahmanian & Anamaria Berea, 2013. "Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?," IMF Working Papers 13/267, International Monetary Fund.
- Bas van Aarle, 2013. "Surveillance and Control of Fiscal Consolidation on a Supranational Level," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 46, WWWforEurope.
- Nazim Belhocine & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 13/93, International Monetary Fund.
- Udaibir S. Das & Maria A. Oliva & Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Sovereign Risk: A Macro-Financial Perspective," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(3), pages 367-392, August.
- Era Dabla-Norris & Yasemin Bal-Gunduz, 2012. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," IMF Working Papers 12/264, International Monetary Fund.
- Anna Kochanova & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "Country Stress Events: Does Governance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/116, International Monetary Fund.
- Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2013. "Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/264, International Monetary Fund.
- Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 12/212, International Monetary Fund.
- Das, Udaibir S. & Oliva, Maria A. & Tsuda, Takahiro, 2012. "Sovereign Risk: A Macro-Financial Perspective," ADBI Working Papers 383, Asian Development Bank Institute.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.