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Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease

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  • Kareem Ismail
  • Rabah Arezki

Abstract

We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/94.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/94

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Related research

Keywords: Commodity price fluctuations; Economic models; Government expenditures; Natural resources; Oil exports; Oil producing countries; Real effective exchange rates; Revenue mobilization;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rabah Arezki & Mustapha K. Nabli, 2012. "Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth: Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 3818, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," NBER Working Papers 16945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jimena Zúñiga & Marcelo Capello & Inés Butler & Nester Grión, 2013. "A Cycle-Adjusted Fiscal Rule for Sustainable and More Equitable Growth in Argentina," IDB Publications 82358, Inter-American Development Bank.
  5. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mauricio Villafuerte & Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 10/251, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Gurvich, E. & Prilepskiy, I., 2010. "What Determined the Depth of Recession?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 8, pages 55-79.
  8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
  9. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  11. Carlos Gustavo Cano, . "Regla fiscal y estabilidad macroeconómica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 607, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Working Paper Series rwp12-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  13. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 11/171, International Monetary Fund.

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