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Beyond the Crisis

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  • Ruben Atoyan
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    Abstract

    Focusing on the nexus between economic growth and buildup of external vulnerabilities, this paper provides a systematic account of different growth strategies followed in Central and Eastern Europe in 2000-08 and then uses this growth diagnostics to derive implications for the post-crisis recovery. The main findings point to three policy lessons for improving growth sustainability. First, greater reliance on tradable sectors should be the cornerstone of the future growth model. Second, enhancing domestic sources of bank credit funding would contribute to mitigation of external vulnerabilities and make domestic financial system more resilient to global financial shocks. Third, prudential and macroeconomic policies will have to be more proactive in managing capital inflows, including funneling these inflows into investment in the export-oriented industries.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/92.

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    Length: 31
    Date of creation: 01 Apr 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/92

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    Related research

    Keywords: Bank credit; Capital controls; Capital inflows; Central and Eastern Europe; Economic models; Emerging markets; economic growth; growth model; capital flows; private capital flows; current account balance; current account deficit; current account deficits; private capital; domestic credit; capital formation; capital mobility; per capita income; foreign capital; composition of capital inflows; growth diagnostics; sustainable economic growth; credit expansion; real gdp; subsidiaries; massive capital inflows; investor confidence; economic growth rates; growth rates; global economic growth; gdp growth;

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    1. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," NBER Working Papers 11528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jesmin Rahman, 2010. "Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance," IMF Working Papers 10/97, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Abdul Abiad & Daniel Leigh & Ashoka Mody, 2009. "Financial integration, capital mobility, and income convergence," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 24, pages 241-305, 04.
    4. Alexander Klemm, 2009. "Causes, Benefits, and Risks of Business Tax Incentives," IMF Working Papers 09/21, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Abdul Abiad & Ashoka Mody & Susan Schadler & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union," IMF Occasional Papers 252, International Monetary Fund.
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