Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle
AbstractThis paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. We also find that a worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions). A key implication is that, particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/71.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2010-05-02 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2010-05-02 (Macroeconomics)
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