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Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions

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  • Daniel Kanda
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    Abstract

    Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take account of asset prices and sectoral changes, and applies this to the case of Ireland, where a property bust has revealed a large hole in the public finances. It is shown that excluding these factors led to a substantial bias in the estimation of structural revenues, and the structural balance prior to the crisis was much larger than earlier estimated.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23685
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/57.

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    Length: 23
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/57

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic growth; Economic models; Fiscal analysis; Government expenditures; Housing prices; National income; Revenues; Taxes; fiscal policy; expenditure; structural fiscal; fiscal balance; public finances; fiscal revenues; structural expenditure; expenditures; fiscal expenditure; fiscal position; fiscal balances; tax revenues; fiscal affairs department; fiscal affairs; government revenue; budget balances; tax revenue; taxation; fiscal positions; fiscal stance; fiscal deficit; fiscal revenue; fiscal sustainability; total expenditure;

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    Cited by:
    1. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    2. Kai Liu, 2014. "Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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