Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions
AbstractAsset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take account of asset prices and sectoral changes, and applies this to the case of Ireland, where a property bust has revealed a large hole in the public finances. It is shown that excluding these factors led to a substantial bias in the estimation of structural revenues, and the structural balance prior to the crisis was much larger than earlier estimated.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/57.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-03-28 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-03-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2010-03-28 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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- Kai Liu, 2014. "Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 1411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
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