Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

Contents:

Author Info

  • Markus Bruckner
  • Rabah Arezki

Abstract

We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23646
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/53.

as in new window
Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/53

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords: Debt management; Economic models; External debt; External shocks; Government expenditures; Revenue mobilization; debt policy; debt overhang; debt default; total external debt; debt accumulation; long-term debt; short-term debt; external borrowing; debt stock; fiscal policy; external debt stock; income distribution; public debt; external debt accumulation; debtor country; sovereign defaults; econometric model; econometric analysis; debt relief;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Ronald Mendoza & Ronald, 2010. "Inclusive Crises, Exclusive Recoveries, and Policies to Prevent a Double Whammy for the Poor," Working papers 1004, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2011. "Was This Time Different?: Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics," BIS Working Papers 365, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-Garcia & Julie Dana, 2012. "Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices : Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 9341, October.
  7. Kareem Ismail & Rabah Arezki, 2010. "Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 10/94, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2013. "Sovereign defaults, business cycles and economic growth in Latin America, 1870-2012," Research Report 13010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  9. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/108, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.