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Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies

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Author Info

  • Jordi Prat
  • Leandro Medina
  • Alun H. Thomas

Abstract

This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF''s Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/43.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/43

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Related research

Keywords: Economic models; Emerging markets; Real effective exchange rates; current account; current account balance; current account balances; current account deficits; crisis countries; current account surplus; current account adjustment; current accounts; debt outstanding; external shocks; stock of debt; sovereign bonds;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Russell Smyth, 2007. "Asia'S Booming Economies A Decade After The Crisis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 26(3), pages 193-195, 09.
  4. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Anwar Nasution, 2007. "Global Savings-Investment Imbalances: What Role for East Asia?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, May.
  6. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 2.
  8. Jungjin Lee & Abdul Abiad & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments," IMF Working Papers 09/32, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Teresa Sastre & Francesca Viani, 2014. "Countries’ safety and competitiveness, and the estimation of current account misalignments," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1401, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Hakan KARA & Çağrı SARIKAYA, 2013. "Türkiye’de Konjonktürel Etkilerden Arındırılmış Cari İşlemler Dengesi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 28(332), pages 09-32.
  3. Bernd Schnatz, 2011. "Global Imbalances And The Pretence Of Knowing Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 604-615, December.
  4. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Uroševic & Emir Zildžovic, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Working papers, National Bank of Serbia 23, National Bank of Serbia.
  6. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
  7. The SEACEN Centre, 2013. "Finding Asia’s New Sustainable Growth Model Post GFC: The Role of the Central Banks (Proceedings of High-Level Conference)," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp91, June.
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment - The Case of the Chinese Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3797, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Yıldız AKKAYA & Refet S. GÜRKAYNAK, 2012. "Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 93-119.

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